Session 173

Proactive Strategies to Manage an Uncertain World

Track C

Date: Monday, October 12, 2009


Time: 12:45 – 14:00

Common Ground

Room: Meeting Room 11

Jatinder Sidhu, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Title: Environmental Uncertainty, Foresight and Strategy Formulation: An Integrated Theory


  • Riccardo Vecchiato, Kingston University Business School
  • Claudio Roveda, Polytechnic University of Milan

Abstract: This paper focuses on the role and effectiveness of foresight activities, in particular environmental scanning and future-oriented techniques, for managing uncertainty. Based on an intensive and inductive study of two large corporations we argue that the viability and advantages of future-oriented techniques depend on the kind of uncertainty to be faced by organizations, the rate of development of new trends and drivers of change and their endogenous or exogenous nature. We introduce the key distinction between “Level 0 Uncertainty” and “Level 1 Uncertainty” regarding the components of the business micro environment and conclude by outlining a theory of foresight as dynamic capabilities which may help bridge the gap between the planning and the learning schools, while assessing the appropriate role of prediction in strategic management.

Title: Managerial Forecasting and Intuition in the Music Industry


  • Matthias Seifert, University of Cambridge
  • Allegre Hadida, University of Cambridge

Abstract: This research examines the role of intuition in managerial forecasting. It offers to test the effects of task ambiguity, domain-specific expertise and individual and group judgments on the efficiency of intuition in model-manager predictions. Results from an experimental field study carried out in the music industry indicate that task ambiguity moderates the predictive performance of managers and of analytical models. The study goes on to delineate the conditions in which collective intuition is most likely to increase judgmental accuracy. Finally, key findings challenge the robustness of previous research proposing an optimal 50:50 split between analytical and intuitive cognition to engineer higher quality decisions.

Title: Organizational Perception: Scanning & Interpretation of Collective Mind


  • Peter Gallo, Creighton University

Abstract: In this study we use the collective-level construct of “organizational perception” to help study how the patterns of social relations in a firm impact its responsiveness to uncertainty. While much of the organizational literature has focused on how managers and executives perceive changes in the firm’s environment, we suggest that these perceptions are limited by how the collective mind of the organization focuses the attention of individual members. We develop several propositions on organizational perception and its performance consequences. We suggest that these propositions can be developed into hypotheses and tested in a single-industry panel study for which we are currently collecting data.

Title: Towards a Theoretically Founded Model of Planning and Performance: Planning as Dynamic Capability


  • Daniel Schulze Lammers, University of St. Gallen

Abstract: This paper integrates recent findings about dynamic capabilities and organizational learning to build a conceptual and theoretically founded model on the link between strategic planning and performance. Planning is argued to be a third-order dynamic capability that creates lower-level capabilities, namely exploration and exploitation. Hypotheses are deducted that connect frequently studied characteristics of planning with exploration and exploitation. The latter are considered to be linked to performance and moderated by capabilities to sense, seize and reconfigure and environmental conditions.

All Sessions in Track C...

Mon: 12:45 – 14:00
Session 173: Proactive Strategies to Manage an Uncertain World
Session 181: Sustaining Innovation
Mon: 15:45 – 17:00
Session 174: The Effect of Environmental Conditions on Organizational Reconfiguration
Session 183: Managing Collective Emotions under Strategic Uncertainty
Mon: 17:15 – 18:30
Session 175: The Influence of Uncertainty on Investment Behaviour of Firms
Session 185: New Forms and Governance Modes for Coping with Uncertainty
Tue: 10:00 – 11:15
Session 176: The Influence of External Uncertainty on Capability Development
Tue: 11:30 – 12:45
Session 177: How to Make the Right Decisions During Uncertain Times?
Tue: 14:30 – 15:45
Session 178: Does the Past Predict Future Exploratory or Exploitative Innovative Behaviour?
Wed: 10:00 – 11:15
Session 179: Environmental Dynamism and Firm Behavior
Session 182: Cognitive Processs under Uncertainty
Wed: 11:30 – 12:45
Session 180: The Dynamics of Top Management Team in Achieving Long Term Performance
Session 184: Value Creation Under Uncertainty

Strategic Management Society

Washington DC