Abstract: This paper focuses on the role and effectiveness of foresight activities, in particular environmental scanning and future-oriented techniques, for managing uncertainty. Based on an intensive and inductive study of two large corporations we argue that the viability and advantages of future-oriented techniques depend on the kind of uncertainty to be faced by organizations, the rate of development of new trends and drivers of change and their endogenous or exogenous nature. We introduce the key distinction between “Level 0 Uncertainty” and “Level 1 Uncertainty” regarding the components of the business micro environment and conclude by outlining a theory of foresight as dynamic capabilities which may help bridge the gap between the planning and the learning schools, while assessing the appropriate role of prediction in strategic management.

Abstract: This research examines the role of intuition in managerial forecasting. It offers to test the effects of task ambiguity, domain-specific expertise and individual and group judgments on the efficiency of intuition in model-manager predictions. Results from an experimental field study carried out in the music industry indicate that task ambiguity moderates the predictive performance of managers and of analytical models. The study goes on to delineate the conditions in which collective intuition is most likely to increase judgmental accuracy. Finally, key findings challenge the robustness of previous research proposing an optimal 50:50 split between analytical and intuitive cognition to engineer higher quality decisions.

Abstract: In this study we use the collective-level construct of “organizational perception” to help study how the patterns of social relations in a firm impact its responsiveness to uncertainty. While much of the organizational literature has focused on how managers and executives perceive changes in the firm’s environment, we suggest that these perceptions are limited by how the collective mind of the organization focuses the attention of individual members. We develop several propositions on organizational perception and its performance consequences. We suggest that these propositions can be developed into hypotheses and tested in a single-industry panel study for which we are currently collecting data.

Abstract: This paper integrates recent findings about dynamic capabilities and organizational learning to build a conceptual and theoretically founded model on the link between strategic planning and performance. Planning is argued to be a third-order dynamic capability that creates lower-level capabilities, namely exploration and exploitation. Hypotheses are deducted that connect frequently studied characteristics of planning with exploration and exploitation. The latter are considered to be linked to performance and moderated by capabilities to sense, seize and reconfigure and environmental conditions.